# Transfer Bonus Predictor: When Will Your Next Transfer Bonus Be? ## Transfer now, or wait for a bonus? You've found the award seat and you have the points. There's no transfer bonus to that program today. Do you transfer at the normal rate, or hold off in case a 30% bonus shows up next month? Banks don't announce bonuses in advance, but they do repeat themselves. Amex has offered a bonus to Hilton 22 times since 2017. Citi has offered 25% to Avianca LifeMiles 16 times. Chase has run a bonus to Air Canada Aeroplan roughly every six months since 2022. The Transfer Bonus Predictor turns that history into an estimate: for every bank and loyalty program pair, it shows when the next bonus is likely, how big it usually is, and how much you should trust the estimate. --- ## How to use the Transfer Bonus Predictor 1. **Start with the two summary cards.** The first counts **high-confidence bonuses likely in the next 60 days**, the second counts **medium-confidence bonuses possible in the next 90 days**. Tap either card to filter the table to just those pairs. Tap again to go back to all predictions. 2. **Filter to your points.** Use **Transfer From** to pick the points you hold (Chase, Amex, Citi, Capital One, Bilt and others) and **Transfer To** to pick the airline or hotel program you need. Use one, both or neither. 3. **Read the row.** Each row shows the **Last Bonus** (the end date of the most recent bonus for that pair), the **Predicted Window**, the **Typical Rate** and a **Confidence** badge. A window that has already opened shows as "Now" through the month it closes, and a window that has fully passed without a bonus shows as **Overdue**. 4. **Expand a row for the full history.** Click any row to see every past bonus for that pair with dates and rates, a 12-month grid showing which months its bonuses started in, and the numbers behind the prediction: sample size, median cadence, gap consistency, typical rate and a prediction score out of 100. 5. **Show low confidence if you want everything.** Pairs with too little history are hidden by default. Tick **Show low confidence** to include them. Their window shows as "Insufficient data", but you can still expand them to see the history. The predictor is free and doesn't require an account. > **Tip:** The predictor only looks backward. To see what's live today, > check the [Transfer Bonus Tracker](/tools/transfer-bonus), and turn on > its free email alerts so you hear about a new bonus the day it's added. --- ## How the prediction works The predictor uses the same history as the [Transfer Bonus Tracker](/tools/transfer-bonus), nearly 500 bonuses going back to 2017. For each pair of points program and loyalty program, it does four things. **1. Measures the cadence.** It sorts the pair's bonuses by start date and measures the number of days between each start and the next. The **median** of those gaps is the pair's typical cadence, and the **standard deviation** shows how regular it is (shown as "Gap consistency", for example plus or minus 30 days). **2. Projects the window.** The predicted window starts at the end of the most recent bonus plus the median gap minus one standard deviation, and ends at the end of the most recent bonus plus the median gap plus one standard deviation. A regular pair gets a narrow window. An irregular pair gets a wide one, and if the window is 120 days or longer the tool says "Wide range due to inconsistent cadence." **3. Finds the typical rate.** The typical rate is the median of the pair's past bonus rates. For tiered bonuses ("up to 35%"), it uses the top number. **4. Scores confidence.** The prediction score combines three things: **sample size (40%)**, **gap consistency (35%)** and **rate consistency (25%)**. Then: | Confidence | What it means | | --- | --- | | High | 3 or more past bonuses and a score of 72 or more out of 100 | | Medium | 3 or more past bonuses and a score from 42 to 71 | | Low | Fewer than 3 past bonuses, or a score below 42. Hidden by default | The tool also adds a **Seasonally due** badge to pairs with at least 4 past bonuses where at least half of them started in the same calendar month, and that month is within one month of today. --- ## Example predictions as of October 13, 2026 Windows update whenever a new bonus is added to the history, and the "Now", "Overdue" and summary-card counts depend on today's date, so these will shift. Here's how a few pairs looked on October 13, 2026. | Pair | Past bonuses | Median cadence | Typical rate | Predicted window | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Chase to Air Canada Aeroplan | 9 | 172 days (plus or minus 30) | 20% | Feb to Apr 2027 | High | | Citi to Avianca LifeMiles | 19 | 182 days (plus or minus 69) | 25% | Feb to Jul 2027 | High | | Chase to Virgin Atlantic | 13 | 128 days (plus or minus 53) | 30% | Now to Jan 2027 | High | | Amex to Hilton | 22 | 122 days (plus or minus 88) | 30% | Nov 2026 to May 2027 | Medium | | Chase to IHG | 13 | 129 days (plus or minus 180) | 70% | Now to Jul 2027 | Medium | How to read these: - **Chase to Aeroplan** is the kind of pair the predictor handles best. Nine bonuses since November 2022, usually 20%, roughly twice a year. The last one ended September 30, 2026, so if you need Aeroplan miles right now, the history says the next bonus is probably months away. - **Citi to Avianca** has the longest consistent record of any airline pair, about every six months and almost always 25%. The latest bonus was still live on October 13 (through October 24), so the next one is projected for 2027. - **Chase to Virgin Atlantic** is inside its window now. With a 30% bonus every four months or so, waiting a few weeks can be reasonable if your award isn't time-sensitive. - **Chase to IHG** usually comes back quickly, but the gaps swing so much (one gap was nearly two years) that the window is very wide. The rate is reliably large, between 50% and 100%, but the timing isn't. --- ## What the predictions tell us overall On October 13, 2026, the predictor analyzed **117 transfer pairs**: - **25** had high confidence, **30** medium and **62** low. More than half of all pairs have too little history to predict, which is why low confidence is hidden by default. - **9** high-confidence pairs had a window overlapping the next 60 days, and **17** medium-confidence pairs had a window overlapping the next 90. - Of the 55 high and medium predictions, **44 had windows of 120 days or longer**. Bonuses are frequent overall, but for any one pair the timing is usually loose. - **8** pairs were flagged **Seasonally due**, including Marriott Bonvoy to United, whose bonuses have mostly started in September or October. ### When bonuses happen across the year Across the full history, September is the busiest month for new bonuses and January is the quietest. From 2020 to 2025, about **40%** of all bonuses started in September, October or November. If you're flexible and your trip is far off, fall is the most likely time to see a bonus to the program you need. --- ## Should you wait for a bonus? The predictor can't make that decision for you, but here's a reasonable way to use it: **Transfer now if the award is available today and limited.** Award space can disappear in hours. Saving 20% of the miles isn't worth losing the seat. **Consider waiting if all of these are true:** - The pair has **High** confidence and the window is **now or within a month or two**. - The award isn't scarce, or you're booking a program with fixed prices and wide availability. - The typical rate is meaningful for the size of your transfer. On a 60,000-point transfer, a 30% bonus is 18,000 extra miles. A 15% bonus is 9,000. **Don't wait for a bonus that has never happened.** Some pairs have no history at all. The tracker has no record since 2017 of a Chase bonus to United or World of Hyatt, an Amex bonus to Delta, or a Citi bonus to American Airlines, so they won't appear in the predictor. **Check the value, not just the rate.** Big hotel bonuses (Chase to IHG at 70% or more, Chase to Marriott at 50% or more) look generous, but hotel points are usually worth much less each. The [Points Valuator](/tools/pointsvalue) and the [Transfer Tool](/tools/transferTool) help you compare what the transfer is actually worth. --- ## Transfer Bonus Predictor vs. Transfer Bonus Tracker The two tools answer different questions and work best together. | | Transfer Bonus Tracker | Transfer Bonus Predictor | | --- | --- | --- | | Answers | What bonuses are live right now? | When is the next bonus likely? | | Shows | Live and upcoming bonuses, plus full history | Predicted window, typical rate and confidence per pair | | Email alerts | Yes, free with sign-in | No | | Best for | Acting on a bonus today | Deciding whether to wait | --- ## What the predictor doesn't do - **No inside information.** Predictions come only from past bonus dates and rates. Banks change their plans, and a pattern can stop without warning. - **It doesn't know about partner changes.** If a bank adds or drops a partner, the history doesn't reflect that. Confirm the partner still exists, and the current ratio, in the [Transfer Tool](/tools/transferTool) before you plan around a prediction. - **"Up to" rates use the top tier.** Bilt's Rent Day bonuses depend on your Bilt status and tiered bonuses depend on transfer size, but the typical rate uses the headline number. - **Overdue doesn't mean imminent.** A pair marked Overdue has gone longer than its usual cadence. That can mean a bonus is close, or that the bank has stopped running it. - **Wide windows are wide.** If a window spans six months or more, treat it as "this pair gets bonuses sometimes", not as a forecast. --- ## Frequently asked questions ### Can you predict when a transfer bonus will happen? Not exactly, but you can estimate it. Many bank and loyalty program pairs repeat on a regular cadence: Citi to Avianca LifeMiles has run a 25% bonus roughly every six months, and Chase to Air Canada Aeroplan has run one about twice a year since 2022. The Transfer Bonus Predictor turns that history into a predicted window with a confidence level. ### How does the Transfer Bonus Predictor calculate the predicted window? For each pair it measures the gaps between past bonus start dates, takes the median gap and its standard deviation, and projects a window forward from the end of the most recent bonus: the median gap minus one standard deviation to the median gap plus one standard deviation. Regular pairs get narrow windows and irregular pairs get wide ones. ### What do High, Medium and Low confidence mean? Confidence comes from a score weighted 40% on sample size, 35% on how consistent the gaps are and 25% on how consistent the bonus rates are. High needs at least 3 past bonuses and a score of 72 or more. Medium needs at least 3 past bonuses and a score from 42 to 71. Everything else is Low and hidden by default. ### What does "Seasonally due" mean? It appears when a pair has at least 4 past bonuses, at least half of them started in the same calendar month, and that month is within one month of today. Marriott Bonvoy to United, for example, has mostly started its bonuses in September or October. ### What does "Overdue" mean in the predictor? It means the predicted window has fully passed without a new bonus. The pair has gone longer than usual, which can mean a bonus is near, or that the bank has stopped offering it. ### What is the best time of year for transfer bonuses? Fall. September is the busiest month for new bonuses in AwardHack's history, and from 2020 to 2025 about 40% of bonuses started in September, October or November. January is the quietest month. ### Should I wait for a transfer bonus before transferring points? Only if the award isn't scarce, the pair has a high-confidence window that is now or very soon, and the typical bonus is big enough to matter. If the seat you want is available today and might disappear, transfer now. ### Is the Transfer Bonus Predictor free? Yes. The predictor is free and doesn't require an account. For email alerts when a bonus actually launches, sign in on the free Transfer Bonus Tracker. --- ## The bottom line Transfer bonuses aren't random. Most pairs repeat, and many repeat at the same rate. The Transfer Bonus Predictor shows you which ones are due, how big they usually are and how much to trust the estimate, so you can decide whether to transfer today or wait. When a bonus does arrive, the [Transfer Bonus Tracker](/tools/transfer-bonus) will show it. --- Source: https://awardhack.com/tools/transfer-bonus-predictor | Updated 2026-10-13